The Indians are Coming!

The Indians have arrived in New Zealand for their first tour in over six years. Naturally, the series holds extra significance for me given that it features the team I root for against the team I ought to be rooting for - by birth. Here's a preview of what we can expect during the series.

Last year, during the VB series in which India were upstaging the Aussies in their own backyard, I wrote a small post about the predicament I generally face, given that I'm Indian and have (almost) always supported New Zealand. When India and New Zealand square off, the anticipation for me is one of excitement and trepidation at the same time. It forces me to confront my biases, having something of a pitch in both camps. It makes cricketing discussions with friends that much more interesting, however, as I become the resident kiwi 'expert', and provide the insight into the opposition's approach and become a convenient punching bag when India dominates. At the same time, I fondly recall the frustrations of my countrymen over the happenings of that wet summer of 2002/03, and that tri-series Cup final in Zimabawe during 2005. Contests between the two teams over the last decade have generally been split even.

Things have changed dramatically since 2003, however. India have retained the core of that legendary batting lineup, and appear to have a lot more teeth in the bowling. On the last tour, Zaheer Khan, Ashish Nehra and Ajit Agarkar shared the fast bowling duties on those greentops, and it was agreed that Agarkar was the weak link. This version features an improved Zaheer, an equally threatening Ishant Sharma and a handy backup in Munaf Patel. New Zealand have seen the core of that team fall by the wayside, and are feeling their way about in test cricket. NZ won the tests 2-0 last time around, and fingers were pointed in equal measure at the pitches, and the inability of India's batsmen to adapt. But very little credit was given to NZ's bowling attack - Bond, Tuffey and Oram - who exploited the conditions brilliantly, bowling impeccable lengths.

The conditions, of course, remain the talking point going into this series. According to this article from Adam Parore, the choice lies between turning this tour into "an Indian batting display for the rest of the world to savour", or ensuring the conditions "suit the home side". In the same paper, Mark Richardson warns that India also have the bowlers to exploit the conditions, but feels that "in a pure bat-off, India surely would take a huge advantage". Sidharth Monga in Cricinfo notes that India not playing in NZ very often is a key reason why these tours tend to be a test for them. As for the pitches, he says the visitors "have a new-ball pairing to make any home side think twice before dishing out green tracks" which is quite true, though on a personal level his statement that "India can afford to be condescending towards New Zealand, much in the way England and Australia used to be towards India" makes me want NZ to win this series all the more, though that seems unlikely to happen.

I suppose I'd have to agree with Richardson on the ideal pitches for this series. He says the tests need "a session or two of movement, followed by a batsman-friendly period and then some turn and variable bounce later on". On a financial level, and certainly in the matter of India-NZ relations, the tour assumes great importance for the hosts. After the admittedly dreadful surfaces that were served up in 2002, India haven't been in any real hurry to tour the country, or invite the kiwis over for that matter. According to the future tours program, India were supposed to visit NZ just before the World Cup in 2007 but were quick to pull out, saying it interfered with their preparations. A competitive series might just ensure that NZ move up on India's priority list in the future, as well as improve their standing as an international side.

My predictions for the series:
The T20 Internationals: 2-0 to India. While it's generally impossible to predict with certainty the outcomes of the most abbreviated form of the game, NZ's track record has been abysmal. In contrast, India's erstwhile second-string have revelled in the format. Expect fireworks from the likes of Yusuf Pathan and Ravindra Jadeja, though from NZ's point of view they may have an answer with guys like Neil Broom and Nathan McCullum.

The ODIs: 3-2 to NZ, but whatever happens it will be very close. This NZ side specialises in ODIs and have been near-unbeatable in home conditions of late, and a series against an even more imposing side than Australia might just bring out the best in them. However, India boast a clutch of boundary hitting matchwinners, for whom the batting powerplay seems tailor-made. It will probably boil down to which side uses its slower bowlers more effectively. Vettori vs Harbhajan will be a battle to watch out for. Having been overlooked for the tests, Irfan Pathan will be determined to stamp his mark. So too Jacob Oram, who will probably play as a batsman only.

The Tests: 2-0 to India. The kiwis will fight hard, but the gap between the test sides is way too large, and NZ's batting way too unreliable. The Indian batting oozes class with Gambhir and Sehwag forming an imposing opening pair, the seniors in the middle order will be keen to set the record in NZ straight, and as has been said the bowling is stronger than ever. NZ have a talented but extremely raw batting lineup which will probably feature Martin Guptill taking Jamie How's place at the top. VVS Laxman, who had a miserable tour last time round, is probably due for a classic here. Watch out too, for Ishant Sharma, who will be a handful in these conditions. For the home side, Ross Taylor will look to carry his excellent one-day form into the longer version, and skipper Daniel Vettori will be eager to front up to the challenge of bowling to some of the better players of spin in the world.