A favourable draw, but....

...the New Zealanders have a history of failing to lift themselves in the closing stages of major tournaments. By virtue of their high seeding, they were guaranteed to be placed in the group which included either Bangladesh or Ireland, and they duly annihilated the Irish today. It now boils down to a three-horse race between NZ, Pakistan and the Lankans. Can the kiwis summon up enough steel to beat at least one of these two sides to keep them in consideration for the semis?

I personally feel it will all come down to that game against the Pakistanis on Saturday. And it just may be that the outcome is not entirely in New Zealand's hands, for it will depend a great deal on which Pakistan shows up; the indifferent Pakistan-lite who were thrashed by England in the group stages, or the dangerous, cornered tiger version that walked all over the Dutch and gave Australia a run for their money in the UAE one-dayers a month ago. The Sri Lankans look likely to top the group, and have been NZ's bogey team in recent years. I, for one, will be watching with bated breath on Saturday.

NZ have done a lot better than I expected in this tournament so far. Injuries and indifferent form of their major players have meant that they've struggled to put a competitive-looking XI on the field, but they've avoided potential slip-ups against the likes of Scotland and Ireland and almost overcame South Africa the other day (the match should have been theirs but for a surprisingly timid batting effort). As was evident in the game against South Africa, acting skipper McCullum needs support and may just have found it with the arrival of the unheralded Aaron Redmond as cover for Jesse Ryder.

Despite the likes of Nathan McCullum and Ian Butler playing out of their skins, the bowling will be NZ's Achilles heel in the games to come. I mean, when a Misbah-ul-Haq, an Abdur Razzaq or a Tillekeratne Dilshan is sizing up a target of 70 in 6 overs, and confronted with NZ's attack, he would generally back himself to do it. As was suggested in Cricinfo many years ago, "New Zealand's bowlers are big on effort, but there's a sameness about them which makes risk-taking an attractive proposition."