The Super Eights, and New Zealand's Chances

What a damp squib of a tournament it's been so far. "Damp" being the operative word. That's not to say there hasn't been any good cricket - the batting of Jayawaredne and Suresh Raina, that magnificent final over from Mohammad Aamer against the Aussies, and some spirited displays from the outclassed Afghans have all provided moments to savour. But the ridiculous applications of the Duckworth-Lewis method to rain interrptions, which left barely a few overs to play with in each case, were the most enduruing images from the first round.

The minnows mostly acquitted themselves well, but for the sake of completness it would've been nice to see how Zimbabwe might have managed their chase in pirsuit of 173 against the Lankans, or indeed if the Irish could have chased down 121 against England - I for one believed they would. The England/West Indies clash should have been the game of the first round; if Chris Gayle had hung around for a few overs after the point when the game was called off, we might have been in for a super chase.

Anyway, I suppose it's the tournament's gain as the best eight teams are through, and will fight it out on the better pitches of Barbados and St.Lucia with a reduced threat of rain. Each of the two groups seems to have assumed a character of its own. On current form, India and Australia are playing the best cricket and should see off Lanka and the Windies, though if Chris Gayle happens to wake up on the right side of the bed he could gobble up either side for breakfast. Mahela aside, Sri Lanka have looked second-grade though their varied bowling attack might act as cover for the batting frailties.

The other group is far more unpredictable. Each of the four teams looks unconvincing and yet makes a decent case for a semifinal berth. South Africa have been somewhat off the pace, but bouncy Barbados is as close to the Wanderers as they'll ever hope to get; Steyn and Morkel should be in their element. With Pakistan, you never know although the absence of Gul has robbed their attack of a certain X-factor. England's batsmen should benefit from the change in conditions and they look good to qualify. Which brings us to New Zealand.

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I suppose it doesn't speak highly of our side, but those slow low Guyana conditions provided the kiwis with a definite advantage. Jrod has paid Scott Stryis the most glowing tribute he could ever hope to receive, but its hard to see him and Nathan McCullum being as effective with the ball in Barbados. The washout against Zimbabwe denied the batsmen some important batting practice, but again the better batting pitches really ought to bring out the best in a patchy top order. As with the Windies, if either opener (Ryder or Baz) finds his mojo he could win the game off his own bat. But it is high time the supporting cast chipped in too. We should make the semis still, but only after much huffing and puffing a la the Sri Lanka game.

(I think the above para pretty much sums up the problem: too many "buts".)

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Predictions. Damned if you do (they never work out, and you end up looking silly) and damned if you don't (you're not joining in the fun). So as not to sit on the fence, I pick India, Australia, England and New Zealand. I initially chose South Africa over NZ, but a) I'm banking on the fact that South Africa might cock-up when things are most loaded in their favour, and b) I ought to have a lot more faith in my side.