The Tri Series so far

Standings:

New Zealand - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Pts 5, NRR +1.684
India - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Pts 5, NRR -1.515
Sri Lanka - Played 2, Won 1, Lost 1, Pts 4, NRR -0.278

Things are pretty even after round one, with each of the three teams winning a game apiece. On closer inspection, Sri Lanka are not too far behind on NRR after being beaten convincingly by India, but crucially did not secure the bonus point against NZ. I wonder if that might come back to haunt them.

India bounced back magnificently after the 200-run loss to NZ, but then they have made a habit of starting tournaments with big losses and coming back strongly. Besides any team with Sehwag in it is not to be taken lightly. Middle order has looked loose so far.

For NZ, the importance of the win against India can't be overestimated. Despite the major dropoff in performance against the Lankans, they are still comfortably ahead on NRR. One win from here on should be enough to secure a final slot.

As to who will make the finals, it's a tough call. Sri Lanka appear to possess the most variety in bowling, and the shock value provided by guys like Malinga and Mendis might prove too much for the undercooked NZ batting lineup the second time around. India, on the other hand, seem to have the measure of the Lankans. The last league game, between India and NZ, could well be a knockout scenario. A lot will then depend on whether NZ's top order has found some form by then.

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NZ were a bit complacent in going in with just five specialist batsmen for the Sri Lanka game, especially since two of those five are new to international cricket. Any lineup with Hopkins at #6 is a cause for worry. They desperately need someone to play the Vettori role (with the bat), which is why the decision to drop Grant Elliott was a questionable one.

It's also been disappointing to see Kane Williamson's first couple of innings go off badly but hopefully he shows his true colours in the upcoming games (though he and everyone else are batting one position too high in the order, really). BJ Watling's 55 on debut somewhat made up for Kane's failures though. Taylor looks the best of the batsmen, but someone has to step up though in the event that he doesn't come off in a crucial game (yes, I'm looking at you Martin Guptill).

I'm also a little worried on NZ's over-reliance on a four-pronged seam attack. The Lanka game showed that the rest might struggle to match the consistency of Kyle Mills and there is too much of a sameness about them. Still, it's up to the batsmen to give them enough runs to play with.

That's the formula then; win one of two and almost certainly go through.