The Champions Trophy: NZ vs RSA Preview

It's a daunting task for the Black Caps first up, facing a desperate South Africa who have to win to stay in the competition. An early exit would be extremely embarrassing for the hosts, when you consider how they've talked up their chances no end. While anything less than a semi-final spot seemed unthinkable for the Proteas at the start, it offers NZ a chance to turn this a potentially explosive situation in their favour.

The kiwis, not for the first time, are missing Ian Butler and Jacob Oram through injury. Butler's fiery bowling and lower order hitting will be missed, while Oram seems to have become one of those players whose value to the side is more apparent in his absence than when he actually turns up. Do they play the extra bowler now, or opt to bolster the batting? It might bring bits-and-pieces man Brendan Diamanti into the mix, and though I personally don't rate his bowling, he demonstrated some even temperament with the bat on debut against the Aussies in February.

South Africa would be my favourite for this game, but I don't see the Black caps as markedly inferior; self-belief is the key for Vettori and co. NZ's past wins over the Proteas have generally come about either when one player stands up and plays a big knock (like Fleming in the 2006 edition), or when their slower bowlers have managed to successfully choke the opposition big hitters. In tomorrow's game, look for; Dale Steyn and Ntini (if he plays) to make life difficult for the top-order, Ross Taylor to play the Fleming-type accumulation role, Graeme Smith to either be dismissed early or go on to a hundred, and the South African middle-order to struggle if NZ pick two spinners.