Monday, September 21, 2009

On Champions Trophy Prospects

I partially agree with Ben on New Zealand's chances in the upcoming Champions Trophy. I certainly can't see them winning it, despite Daniel Vettori's tall claims. A semi-final spot, however, is not as seemingly out-of-reach as most people have predicted; this feeling has much to do with NZ's poor performances in Sri Lanka, but a change of venue will actually do NZ good.

The batsmen have been largely responsible for New Zealand's slide as a one-day outfit in recent times, but the pitches in South Africa will suit them better than the sluggish Premadasa. This seems to be vindicated by their comprehensive win over India in the warm-up game. South Africa and Sri Lanka have never been NZ's favourite opponents, but the kiwis' recent record against the Saffers is decent, and the Lankan batting will be tested on faster wickets. England aren't expected to pose much of a challenge following post-ashes struggles, but a backlash might be expected following a thorough examination from the classy Aussies. NZ's variety in bowling options - Bond, Mills, Tuffey, Butler, Vettori, Patel - will always give their batsmen a chance, though the odds suggest they won't take it.

The side has long-running problems with Jacob Oram and Brendon McCullum, and this tournament offers them a chance to put their sub-par performances in the shade. Oram especially must justify the faith shown in him by the selectors, at least as far as his batting is concerned.

Historically, in big tournaments, NZ have tended to be at their best when least expected to succeed. In the last edition of the Champions Trophy, they made the semis ahead of Sri Lanka and Pakistan despite carrying a typically out-of-sorts top order (Stephen Fleming excepted). This is the other reason for my optimism; an upset win against the Lankans on a bouncy Centurion wicket and who knows, really.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree with your view . NZ has a lot of good hitters, but is there any consolidator when things don't go their way?

And in bowling, Bond and Vettori are definitely amongst the best in business. But that's 20 overs. What about consistency in the rest?

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Suhas said...

Hey Sujith, thanks for stopping by. The one consolidator in the kiwi ranks is the unheralded (South African born) Grant Elliott. He's played some important knocks in his short ODI career, so look out for him to steady the ship if those familiar top-order problems resurface.

About the back-up bowling, Kyle Mills has a fine record at this level and is generally tidy with the new ball. Ian Butler's return has benefited the side too, though he can be expensive. Unfortunately, Jacob Oram has been rather flat of late, and he seems to be the weak link in the attack now.

They make a decent side on paper, but they haven't come to the party collectively often enough.

Anonymous said...

I like your individual picks Suhas. Like i mentioned in response to your comment, I will keep an eye on Elliott. Regarding Mills and Butler, they definitely are quite steady bowlers, and on their day, all seem to put in a good performance. My only question is when it's not their day, which one guy will stand up and throw his hat into the ring?

For some reason, I feel that NZ either win or lose in a grand fashion.

Suhas said...

That's a tough question. Mills' reputation suffered a bit at the hands of the Indians earlier this year, but he's usually been the one to front up; he's been particularly good at knocking over Australian and South African top order batsmen. Vettori is the one who can be relied upon to produce a 10-overs-for-thirty kind of spell, but you almost feel he's due for an off-day.