England v New Zealand Preview: An Uphill Task for NZ

I was away on a camping trip over the weekend, so it was a pleasant surprise to find that the kiwis had gotten their game together and upstage the Lankans on Sunday. Ordinarily, England would be their opponent of choice when faced with a knockout scenario but the task ahead of them - a victory on Tuesday to make it to the semis - has turned difficult following a glut of injuries. Jacob Oram, Jesse Ryder and Daryl Tuffey have all been ruled out, and Aaron Redmond (Ryder's replacement) will not be arriving early enough to make the game.

England, to everyone's amazement, are already through to the semis following two wonderful wins against the Lankans and the Proteas. The feeling is that this would work in the Black Caps' favour, given that are the more 'desperate' side. However, I don't quite buy this theory. NZ's recent record in crunch games is very poor, and England have more likely drawn tremendous confidence from those wins than complacency. Their bowlers, Anderson and Onions, might fancy themselves if they were to have first use of a spiced-up Johannesburg pitch. NZ's injury worries leave the lineup unbalanced; if they are to win, it'll probably come down to one top-order player having to make a big century.

The loss of Ryder is a major blow, but ironically it was the injury he sustained on Sunday which made the win possible. After he figured early on he wouldn't last too long in the game, he lashed out against the Lankan pacers to cause some terminal damage. Brendon McCullum's role as opener is to do exactly the same, but chances are he'll continue to play in controlled fashion. The batting lineup looks especially thin with Broom, Vettori, Franklin and Hopkins making up the middle order. With the exception of Vettori, they are all better suited to coming in late and smacking quick runs, so the onus is really on the top four. Franklin, though, was a revelation on Sunday and on current form, a offers more to the side than Jacob Oram.

Tuffey's injury has also made matters worse, as he has been the best of the frontline bowlers. He'll be replaced by a barely-fit Ian Butler. Both Kyle Mills and Shane Bond have had a poor tournament, but they usually deliver on the big occasion. Vettori might even consider playing Jeetan Patel as second spinner, considering England's notoriously bad record against the slower men.

The odds are stacked against NZ going into this game. Who would've thought? Having said that, it's been a fine tournament so far, with closely contested games and unpredictable results. In keeping with that, we might see an injury-ridden NZ making it to the semis.